關於 global house price ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

There’s rhythm in writing! 🎶

這個禮拜Presentality的Andrew來分享英文寫作的節奏!

★★★★★★★★★★★★

我的工作需要看非常多的英文。

其中有英文母語的人寫的，也有非母語的人寫的。最近，我注意到一個兩者之間很明顯的差別。這個差別很少有人提到，因為它無關文法正確，也不是有學問的用語，或是文雅的詞彙。

是句子的長短。

Well，更正確的來說，是長句跟短句的交錯。我發現，非母語人士寫的英文句子，不但比英文母語的人寫的長，而且是大部分句子都很長。

母語的人，尤其是很會寫的人，則是會把長句跟短句混合搭配。
那又怎樣？

★★★★★★★★★★★★

你可能會說 ok，以英文為母語的人比較會用短的句子，那又怎樣？句子的長短，跟我寫作的好壞，有關嗎？

關係可大了。

就像音樂，或是影片，文字也是「內容」。只要是「內容」，就有它的節奏。你可以想像一首曲子，從頭到尾都是很長的音，而且一點變化都沒有嗎？或是一部很長的影片，從頭到尾都是很長的畫面，而且一點節奏的變化都沒有嗎？

Well actually，你應該可以想像，這些就是要幫助我們睡眠的。
如果你不想要你的讀者覺得無聊或甚至睡著，我建議適度變換你文字的節奏。

但我們先看案例。

我拿一篇台灣人寫的文，跟另一篇美國人寫的，來做比較：把每個句子都分拆成不同的段落，句子的長短就一目了然了。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

但我們先看案例。

我拿一篇台灣人寫的文，跟另一篇美國人寫的，來做比較：把每個句子都分拆成不同的段落，句子的長短就一目了然了。

📌 台灣案例：Taipei Times Opinion

1. The TAIEX last month rose above 17,000 points as rallies in steel, shipping and some non-tech stocks offset a weakness in semiconductor and electronics stocks.

2. While news about a cluster of local COVID-19 infections connected with China Airlines cargo pilots and a hotel in Taoyuan fueled selling pressure early this month and pushed the local stock market into consolidation mode, the daily market turnover in the first two trading sessions of this month hit fresh highs.

3. Moreover, Taiwan’s stock trading volume last month began to surpass that of Hong Kong for the first time in 15 years, which was beyond most market participants’ expectations.

4. Taiwan’s daily market turnover exceeding Hong Kong’s might gradually become a new normal from this year, and there are good reasons for this.

5. First, Hong Kong’s stock market has lost its appeal to foreign investors since China last year imposed national security legislation on the territory, triggering a potential flight of capital and talent.

6. Second, many wealthy Taiwanese tend to park their overseas funds in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland and the US, but government statistics showed that more than 80 percent of funds repatriated by wealthy individuals last year were from Hong Kong, as they saw the political situation in the territory worsen after its self-governance, human rights and freedom of speech were further suppressed.

7. Third, China’s new NASDAQ-style stock board — the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s STAR board — has emerged as a fast-growing capital markets center for Chinese companies at a time when rising China-US tensions have triggered concerns about their prospects of listing in New York, posing a growing challenge to the Hong Kong stock exchange.

8. On the other hand, Taiwan’s economic fundamentals, the central bank’s adoption of extraordinary monetary easing and the government’s fiscal policies have fueled continued rallies in the nation’s stock market since last year.

9. It might be too early to tell how long the consolidation trend might last, as a resurgent COVID-19 outbreak is coloring the global economic outlook, but some insight can be drawn from the stock market:

10. Taiwan’s GDP grew a larger-than-expected 8.16 percent in the first quarter, as exports and private investment remained healthy.

都是一堆很長的句子對不對？我們來看美國人寫的句子，也是一個主流媒體的 opinion 文。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

📌 美國案例：New York Times Opinion

1. I miss torturing Liz Cheney.

2. But it must be said that the petite blonde from Wyoming suddenly seems like a Valkyrie amid halflings.

3. She is willing to sacrifice her leadership post — and risk her political career — to continue calling out Donald Trump’s Big Lie.

4. She has decided that, if the price of her job is being as unctuous to Trump as Kevin McCarthy is, it isn’t worth it, because McCarthy is totally disgracing himself.

5. It has been a dizzying fall for the scion of one of the most powerful political families in the land, a conservative chip off the old block who was once talked about as a comer, someone who could be the first woman president.

6. How naïve I was to think that Republicans would be eager to change the channel after Trump cost them the Senate and the White House and unleashed a mob on them.

7. I thought the Donald would evaporate in a poof of orange smoke, ending a supremely screwed-up period of history.

8. But the loudest mouth is not shutting up.

9. And Republicans continue to listen, clinging to the idea that the dinosaur is the future.

10. “We can’t grow without him,” Lindsey Graham said.

📌 Note: 即使是比較長的句子，這位作者也會用標點符號拆散它：She is willing to sacrifice her leadership post — and risk her political career — to continue calling out Donald Trump’s Big Lie. 這就好比用句點一樣，讓我們讀起來有點停頓休息的時間。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

📌 注意到了嗎？

台灣人寫的英文，句子都偏長，而且長度都差不多。
美國人寫的就不一樣了：一個只有五個字的句子開頭，然後一堆稍微長一點的句子，然後再來一串短句。

你可能懷疑我故意挑選很極端了例子出來，而且幹嘛專門打台灣人呢？

所以想到這裡，我從我的書架上，隨便挑了兩本跟科技有關的書出來。左邊的，是美國人，矽谷知名投資人 Peter Thiel。右邊的是德國人，但注意了，是一個英文非常好的德國人。他不但是世界經濟論壇的創辦人，研究所也是在哈佛大學唸的。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

📌 兩本書 Introduction 是怎麼寫的？

Klaus Schwab (德國)：

Of the many diverse and fascinating challenges we face today, the most intense and important is how to understand and shape the new technology revolution, which entails nothing less than a transformation of humankind.

We are at the beginning of a revolution that is fundamentally changing the way we live, work, and relate to one another.
In its scale, scope and complexity, what I consider to be the fourth industrial revolution is unlike anything humankind has experienced before.

Peter Thiel (美國)：

Whenever I interview someone for a job, I like to ask this question: "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?"

The question sounds easy because it's straightforward.
Actually, it's very hard to answer.

It's intellectually difficult because the knowledge that everyone is taught in school is by definition agreed upon.

See the difference?

★★★★★★★★★★★★

📌 如何變換節奏呢？

需要Andrew的完整分享請留言「There’s rhythm in writing~」。

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