🌻本周做的功課與閱讀
(冷靜詭異的大盤.........可能是因為此, 投資人跑去玩meme stocks了)(台灣時間今晚會公佈CPI)
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/06/blog-post_9.html
🌻Five Key Points from the May Employment Report (by Goldman Sachs)
https://texasnewstoday.com/five-key-points-from-the-may-employment-report/300177/
🌻謝謝參與年報導讀的朋友! 抱歉那天規劃不週, 導致時間拉長了許多! 不過還是希望你們有收穫. 很喜歡這樣的交流. 我有時間會做個10分鐘的影片, 來將內容做更濃縮的整理.
🌻如何挑股?
之前有分享過, 我挑成長股會看哪些東西:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/10/blog-post_28.html
而隨著閱讀的資料越多, 也發現我的挑股方法跟投行有重覆的地方. 而看了很多基金經理人跟投行的挑股方式, 其實方法都大同小異.
像下面這家公司會看的4M(“four M model”—management, moat, market size, and business model), 就跟BofA(美銀美林)看的類似(BofA introduces its "4M framework" for identifying winning stocks in the software group: Market, Moat, Management, and Margin.)
The strategy prioritizes high-quality businesses with organic top-line growth and the potential for continued, long-term high growth—and whose stocks the fund can hold for years. The team applies its “four M model”—management, moat, market size, and business model—to narrow down candidates. It seeks strong managers running companies that have a well-defined economic moat, or competitive advantage, while operating in large markets. It also likes business models where the companies are market-share leaders and produce industry-leading free-cash-flow margins and incremental returns on capital.
The team applies its “four M model”—management, moat, market size, and business model—to narrow down candidates.
(Source: https://webreprints.djreprints.com/58288.html)
這樣的挑股對我的幫助很大:
1. 可以幫我聚焦, 專注在好公司上, 畢竟美股公司很多, 人的體力跟時間也有限.
2. 若一開始就把公司挑對, 以後的煩惱也會比較少. 公司若出了問題, 也不用花太多時間去做研究&判斷.
3. 一開始挑對公司, 之後也會跟著公司的成長, 建立投資上的信心(一個正向的循環).
🌻公司介紹(不是推薦): Olo(olo)
(P.S. 好久沒做這樣的介紹了. 這其實是我挺喜歡的一個單元. 以後看到還不錯的公司, 會繼續介紹.)
Olo是幫餐廳做營運的SaaS公司. 鼎泰豐(美國地區)是他們的客戶之一. 很多美國知名的餐廳也是(可見下方截圖). 成長率驚人--尤其是疫情這段期間, 很多餐廳積極做外送外帶, 就得靠他們的系統, 訂單才不會亂掉.
供有興趣的投資人做進一步的研究.
🌻好文分享
"最後要說的是:你永遠賺不到超出你認知範圍之外的錢,除非你靠運氣。但是靠運氣賺到的錢,往往會靠實力虧掉,這是一種必然。
你所賺的每一分錢,都是你對這個世界認知的變現。你所虧的每一分錢,都是因為你對這個世界的認知不足。這個世界最大的公平在於,當一個人的財富大於他的認知之時,這個世界有1萬種法子收割你,直到你的認知與財富相匹配為止。而避免我們淪為孤絕境地的辦法,永遠只有一個,那就是看準目標與方向,沉靜的努力並持續。"
https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/2295749?fbclid=IwAR0YxwwHTcWIK2-botY806X9e2_HNPy05qdcUU6zsPmCKdck9Vf-fnGVdo8
🌻投資佳句:
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” -- Sir John Templeton (約翰坦伯頓爵士)
Picture: 剛入手的蘭花. 聽說蘭花難度挺高. 來試試. Olo年報截圖.
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過0的網紅CarDebuts,也在其Youtube影片中提到,? คลิปรถใหม่ 2019-2020 มาแล้วครับ คลิกที่นี่ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSebcviE-UeYMxVRNozwqtw/videos 2018 Honda Forza 125 Honda’s segment-lea...
「incremental model」的推薦目錄:
- 關於incremental model 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最讚貼文
- 關於incremental model 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳解答
- 關於incremental model 在 Oak Panthongtae Shinawatra Facebook 的最佳貼文
- 關於incremental model 在 CarDebuts Youtube 的最佳貼文
- 關於incremental model 在 Incremental Model in Software Engineering | SDLC - YouTube 的評價
- 關於incremental model 在 incremental model | software engineering | - YouTube 的評價
- 關於incremental model 在 Incremental model update for Postgres in DBT - Stack Overflow 的評價
incremental model 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳解答
[科技業的護城河]
這篇是講矽谷投資人, 是如何在一堆的新秀中, 挑選可以投資的創新公司.
裡面有提到護城河.不過有些跟"尋找投資護城河"一書提的不太一樣.
我也認為, 研究個股, 尤其是科技相關類股, 除了要看它有沒有先行者優勢(first mover advantage), 也需要注意公司有沒有自己的生態系統, 以及它在更大的生態圈/供應鏈中扮演了甚麼角色.
********
(中文譯稿見此:https://36kr.com/p/5141901)
常見的護城河至少有以上六種:
技術。更好的基礎技術當然是一種護城河。在極端情況下,能夠為客戶帶來利益的新技術可以演化為一種行業標準,你也可以把它理解為一種壟斷,就像英特爾一樣。
生態系統。 YouTube 從內容生產者、分發渠道到內容的託管、保存,建立起了一整套生態系統。類似的,蘋果的 App Store 也有自己的生態。
網絡效應。社交網絡現在已經很好理解了。此外,如果某種按需服務具備了一定的流動性,並且與消費者建立了親密關係,或者是基本控制了需求或供應方其中一方,也可以算作網絡效應。
產品領導者。像 Salesforce,Workday 和 ServiceNow 這樣的雲服務提供商,搭建了一套完整的解決方案,而且創新速度夠快,產品功能完善,成為其細分行業的領導者,當然也算是一種護城河。
渠道。尤其是對於 to B 產品來說,能不能在一個企業內部流通,既是一個挑戰,也是一種優勢
********
原文寫的比較仔細, 轉貼在下方: https://news.greylock.com/what-do-i-look-for-in-a-pitch-866355bddb3
We love to talk about “network effects” in Silicon Valley, but many believe that starts and end with the social, viral growth of Facebook. But network effects can build many kinds of moats that defend them against copycats and price erosion.
I don’t describe every kind of moat here (e.g., regulatory) and many great companies will have new types of moats — ones yet to be invented. No moat is absolute or permanent or I’d be out of a job! Still, having a thesis on your defensibility is essential, even at the Series A.
--Tech. We continue to believe in new and better fundamental technology as a moat — not so much patents or legal protection, but products that are hard to build well or take advantage of a fundamentally new approach. In extreme cases, a technology advantage that translates into a customer benefit can turn into a standard — an effective monopoly — as in the case of Intel. In most cases, even a great technology moat only gets you far enough to become a market leader, buying you the right to work closely with customers and enabling you to define the market.
--Ecosystem moats come in many flavors — from becoming the default hosting site for user-generated video content (YouTube), to the rapid, developer-driven free adoption of container technologies and growth of associated tooling (Docker), to the developers that now make >$20B a year through the Apple app store.
--Networks. Social networks are now pretty well-understood. Marketplaces and on-demand businesses reach a liquidity point (even a local one) and build mindshare with consumers that becomes hard to displace. Often, marketplaces have some advantaged acquisition strategy for at least one side (demand or supply) — they’ve built a community, offered a compelling new service, have organic or viral spread.
--Product leaders. In the enterprise, cloud pioneers like Salesforce, Workday and ServiceNow built complete, core workflow solutions with a new architecture. Their faster-innovating products, (at that time novel) SaaS consumption model, and dominant go-to-market machines have made them category leaders. Each is now expanding their initial moats to become platforms for other applications and workflows.
--Distribution represents a new generation of user-adopted SaaS products. End-user engagement within organizations is often a weak spot for enterprise software incumbents. Deploying software is a challenge for most organizations, and consumers who are using more software in their own lives expect better choice and usability. Simplicity and quality of design has become a moat, especially when coupled with product features that encourage adoption within an organization, or new layers of value for incremental users within an organization. Is it better for me if my team also uses a tool? What about my manager?
Capturing a unique dataset is also emerging as a moat in the age of AI-powered products. If your workflow product or MVP is useful on its own, and you can use it to collect unique data, you can then learn from that data to build a better and smarter product, improving the user experience — driving a new virtuous cycle.
incremental model 在 Oak Panthongtae Shinawatra Facebook 的最佳貼文
ลองเข้าไปติดตามภาคภาษาอังกฤษได้ที่นี่นะครับ
Thaksin Shinawatra in Private Discussion
World Policy Institute Global Leader Briefing Series Thinking Points
World Policy Institute, 9th March 2016, New York
———————————————————
Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,
I must thank you World Policy Institute for providing me an opportunity to share my thought on the challenges that revolve around the economic, regional and global implications of how Thailand will make its way through a period of transition and change.
We all know that no society in the twenty-first century can sustain any form of “progress” in the well-being of its people without at least two basic foundations:
The first one is political stability. The second one is the ability to create economic activities that allow growth and readiness to shift its creativities to sustain wealth.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me tell you the tale of the two cities, which is not written by Charles Dickens. It is the tale of parallel progress of Washington D.C. and Beijing. Each has its own history, pain and loathing. As the years go by, the two cities have been seen as rivals which offers competing models for growth and prosperity.
One is Free Market-Capitalism with the so-called “Open Democracy” as the foundation of its economic model. The other one is State-Led Capitalism with the central control system by one party.
Both of the models have proven to be successful in a very dramatic way from the past to the present. Admitting that the Chinese model was fitting to the change of attitude among the leadership of the country at that time, in parallel with the change of economic model in the West, in which the definition of “free trade” benefits China’s shifting position from a close market to a semi-open market.
But we must admit also that both models are now having to adjust itself to the new reality; the reality of dramatic change in speed and character of technology for industrial production; the change from “a country-based product” to “network of global design, global sourcing,and global production for just one product”. This extraordinary change upends the “normal” internal economic adjustment of the country and made it very difficult to find a simple economic adjustment.
We must recognize that advancement in the wealth management technique and technology also upend the normal linkage between capital and changes in production. However, we probably agree, that one common threat for survival in this present so-called “New Normal” is either you have the ability and willingness to change or you don’t. Thailand, like the other countries, cannot get away from this New Normal in the international context.
Ladies and Gentleman,
There is a tale of a poor English teacher in China who soared to the list of the world’s wealthiest people. He neither built a big factory nor invested in any production facility. But, people paid for his service simply to reach the network of supply and demand on a grand scale. I believe, he must feel thank you to the internet.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Amid the global economic slowdown, the pattern of trade has significantly changed. Due to the development of information technology infrastructure and increasing number of population who is able to access to the internet, e-commerce has become a new engine that sustains growth for both developed and developing economies. According to UNCTAD’s report last year, the value of global business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce in 2013 exceeded $15 trillion USD. While global business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce still accounted for an estimated $1.2 trillion USD, this segment has grown at a rapid pace; especially in the Asia and Oceania region where B2C segment is expected to surge from 20 to 37 percent between 2013 to 2018. Due to the incremental growth of cross-border e-commerce trade, international postal deliveries of small packets and parcels have risen by 48 percent between 2011 to 2014 globally.
For both Asia and the West, I believe these numbers provide us with clues for the new growth opportunities where “access to networks” is the key: meaning, the networks of consumers and factors of production across geographical boundaries. Unlike the economy of twentieth century when “access to centers” is the rules of the game, today, businessmen who do not have big factories and are not the owners of multinational corporations, can manage to reach and satisfy the needs of their customers worldwide through networks of production and distribution with an assist of the new communication technology. Today’s economy is increasingly decentralized. Consumption and production are more and more dispersed. We could imagine that an American producers can sell their products online directly to consumers in the western part of China without having to spend business hours in Beijing or Shanghai. Vice versa, a Chinese producer can bypass New York to offer their products to customers in New England and Mid-Atlantic states. The network economy has provided the people, both in small and large businesses, with the ability to produce and access to consumers at lower costs. We, as a global community, must put special emphasis on how each country can invest and share risk with the people to create growth collectively.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Another tale is about the rebirth of a road that nobody cares since the Portuguese discovered a possible sea route from Europe to Asia. The Portuguese did offer an alternative trade route with substantial margins for the goods carried. Although you might lose half of the cargoes on the way, you still did not lose your shirt. Since the demand for spices were overwhelming, the merchant marines heavily charge everybody.
Ladies and Gentleman,
The heavy-load transport through the sea has been with us till now, and the land routes from Asia to Europe have been neglected. If the world’s economy is thriving like the good old days, probably, not so many people would be interested in finding an alternative in life. But, since the situation goes awry, I believe, any country should consider all possibilities.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Today, there are two major initiatives that, I think, have great potential to accelerate growth and leverage “quality of growth” that brought into being by the emergence of network economy. One is the China-led “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) plan to develop transport and logistics connectivity encompassed some 60 countries, which include about 50 percent of the world’s GDP. And, the other is the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) between 12 Pacific Rim countries, which account for more than 40 percent of the world’s GDP. I have not seen these two initiatives as antagonistic, but rather a kind of two parallel processes that, at a certain point, will create mutual economic benefits for Asia and the West.
We must overcome the stereotype that perceive China and the US as merely the two opposing political superpowers. In reality, the economic development during the past decade has shown us how far these two major economies are interdependent. China is the largest foreign holder of US government securities with $1.24 trillion USD worth. With the total trade volume of $521 billion USD in 2014, the US is China’s biggest trade partner. Total US foreign direct investment (FDI) in China stood at $65.77 billion USD at the end of 2014, while the Chinese FDI in the US is estimated to have reach $11.9 billion USD.
Given this interdependence in mind, I believe Southeast Asia- the region that sits in between the two great initiatives of the two major economies- must put special emphasis on how to enhance the mutual economic benefits with its counterparts. For Southeast Asia in the twenty-first century, the geopolitics should be about how to reinforce the networks of wealth creation for the people that stretch across national and regional borders.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me tell you the last tale about a Thai restaurant. No matter how many times the master chef tries to teach his protege, the young man keeps making mistakes in mixing the ingredients. Customers are kept waiting, hungry and mad. Once the customers are served, half of them get diarrhea afterward. The moral of this tale is one must make the written recipe right.
Ladies and gentlemen,
While some people may underline the unique characteristics of Thailand in terms of its history and developmental path, the country itself cannot avoid to come to terms with the global challenges of the twenty-first century. For half a century, the Thai economy has incrementally integrated into global economy. Values of Thailand’s exports per GDP and FDI in the country have shown us clearly how far the growth of Thai economy has been interwoven with the fate of global economy.
Against this context, we shall consider Thailand’s draft constitution with a very simple question: will the latest draft constitution “enable” the country to grow and become stronger in the present world? Or, will the latest draft constitution provide Thailand with a sufficient institutional infrastructure for investment, production, cooperation, and businesses?
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Due to the framework set out by the latest draft constitution, it is difficult to foresee a government that is responsive to the people and the challenges of the twenty-first century. According to the new draft, the 200-seat upper house, or Senate, will be appointed by the so-called “experts”. The Senate will also have greater powers to block legislation. Regarding the Constitutional Court, its scope of jurisdiction will be expanded. The Court will have the power to examine cases based on petitions filed directly by individuals, without the requirement that an actual dispute being brought by political organs or other courts.
If we consider the doctrine of separation of powers as the foundation for growth and stability, the critical issue that we shall examine is whether the judicial power will trespass the provinces of legislature/ and executive or not? For a government to be able to manage the economy against the global slowdown, I do hope that there will be no over-enforcement of the judicial power. Experiences of several countries show us that, if unchecked, judicial review can be inappropriately used as “delaying tactic”; thus, in turn, become an impediment to economic policy implementation.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I believe that the foundation for the country to create growth and prosperity is to build trust in the global community. The constitution shall protect the rule of law and provide at least a minimum level of freedom of speech that facilitates economic cooperation between the people and the global community. Trade and investment cannot flourish if there is no certain degree of confidence provided by the rule of law. Against the transition and change, Thailand must reevaluate its strength and weakness. The country shall find a sensible way to regain its political stability and economic dynamism. I have only proposed the way of how should we think of the phenomena that is the world today.
incremental model 在 CarDebuts Youtube 的最佳貼文
? คลิปรถใหม่ 2019-2020 มาแล้วครับ คลิกที่นี่ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSebcviE-UeYMxVRNozwqtw/videos
2018 Honda Forza 125
Honda’s segment-leading sports/GT Forza 125 scooter maintains its rapid upward trajectory, receiving a thorough-going restyle, plus electrically adjustable screen, LED indicators, new instrumentation, two all-new colour options. increased underseat storage space and an optional 45-litre Smart Key-linked top box that improve still further its all-round premium appeal.
Honda’s Forza 125 was designed specifically for discerning European scooter customers who demand the maximum out of their ride in every respect – style, presence, performance and specification. And right from its introduction in 2015 it has met and exceeded all expectations, evolving year on year with owner feedback and selling over 30,000 units to date.
Straight out of the crate the Forza 125 hit the ground rolling, deftly mixing traffic-busting agility – thanks to its compact dimensions – with ample ability for longer-range highway commute thanks to its engine performance, wind protection and comfort. It combines the comfort of a ‘GT’ (Grand Touring) scooter with a sports-oriented attitude and handling ability, while offering plenty of storage, a host of premium details plus Honda’s engineering innovation and high build quality.
Classy and agile, and expanding on its obvious success, the Forza 125 is not standing still: for 2018, maintaining a steep development curve, it has been redrawn with fresh new lines and several significant rider-focused upgrades.
- Adjustable electric screen controlled from the left handlebar
- Revised dash offers a mix of analogue and digital information
- LED indicators complement the LED headlight and taillight
- The Smart Key also now operates an optional 45-litre top box
- Refreshed design lines further enhance the premium feel
The Forza 125’s fully-refreshed look flows back from the new electric screen, which adjusts smoothly through 140mm and is designed to provide wind protection (with airflow directed around and over the rider’s head) and reduce wind noise. Stability and comfort at higher speeds – and for long distances – can be instantly exchanged for a greater sense of freedom with the screen in its lower position by simply pushing a switch on the left handlebar to move it to any point in the 140mm range.
Handlebar width remains 754mm as does mirror height of 1125mm, the perfect dimensions for slipping through streets clogged with cars – one of the Forza 125’s incremental development steps already in place from 2017 was to raise its own mirror height to avoid issues with car mirrors. Seat height is unchanged at 780mm; there’s plenty of room for two and the sit-in riding position cups the rider securely. The front and rear indicators are now LED, matching the headlight and taillight.
Two full-face helmets can be stored under the seat, which now offers increased storage space of 53.5 litres, up from 48 litres. It’s also possible to partition the storage area to house a helmet and/or rain gear and A4 sized bags. The front left inner fairing pocket is lockable, and its internal space can be arranged for the rider’s convenience, to hold a phone and water bottle, for instance. It also houses a 12V-1A charging socket.
The Forza 125’s Smart Key – as well as controlling the main ignition switch knob and compartment locking – also now manages the optional 45L removable top box, a first on a Honda scooter. With the Smart Key in the rider’s pocket the box automatically locks when the rider walks away. It can also be locked from the key. The top box switch is on its bottom surface, and to maintain the internal volume of the box the actuator mechanism is located in the rear body of the machine.
Revised instruments present analogue speedometer and rev-counter dials flanking a digital display that can switch between 3 modes (controlled by a switch on the left handlebar); odometer, range remaining and current fuel consumption; trip meter, average fuel consumption and timer; or ambient temperature thermometer and battery sensor.
The Forza’s sharp design lines and distinctive contemporary presence have played a big part in its success since launch in 2015. Now for the 2018 model, the design has been substantially re-worked. While the bold design lines remain instantly recognizable as a Forza 125, every panel has been revised to give the machine a slightly smoother, more mature appearance, with a more rounded, ‘stubby’ feel to the front end and slightly softer design lines throughout. Further heightening the new look, black signature points around the nose, front and side cowls give an added sense of sportiness.
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incremental model 在 incremental model | software engineering | - YouTube 的推薦與評價
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incremental model 在 Incremental Model in Software Engineering | SDLC - YouTube 的推薦與評價
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