北京風沙奇景
黃天激煞
mongolia capital 在 Facebook 的最佳貼文
同時也有1部Youtube影片，追蹤數超過4萬的網紅Dd tai，也在其Youtube影片中提到，銀川華廈片場是中國早期電影的搖籃，更因大話西遊等電影而聞名天下。昭君墓是中國漢代王昭君的陵墓，墓上草木常青，所以又叫「青冢」。大召寺位於城南。1580年建成，是呼和浩特最早興建的喇嘛教寺院。席力圖召是蒙古語，意爲"首席"或"法座",漢名"延壽寺"。Hohhot is the capital of I...
mongolia capital 在 李怡 Facebook 的最讚貼文
Is a U.S.-China hot war imminent?｜Lee Yee
In July, Pompeo claimed the American policy towards China is harsher than the one towards the Soviet Union in the Cold War era. The approach has been shifted from “listening to its words and watching its deeds” to “ignoring its words and only watching its deeds”. Recent developments show that the U.S. is striding closer and closer to a complete de-linkage with China. The recall of the ambassador from China was just a prelude. What followed was the U.S. official interpretation that “one China policy” is not equivalent to “one China principle”, plus the emphasis that “the U.S. holds no specific standpoint towards the sovereignty of Taiwan”. Furthermore, during the visit of Krach, U.S. Under Secretary of State, Tsai Ing-wen stated that “Taiwan has the determination to take the critical step”. Adding fuel to this, Hsiao Bi Khim, Taiwan’s delegate at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S., introduced herself as the “Taiwan Ambassador to the U.S.” on Twitter. In view of all these, is the U.S. going to establish diplomatic relation with Taiwan? Will it turn out to be the “October surprise” before the U.S. presidential election? In response, China dispatched fighter jets to violate the airspace of Taiwan, and as “Global Times” put it, “this was not a gesture of warning, but an actual combat exercise of attacking Taiwan”. In return, Taiwan authority urged China “not to underestimate its armed forces' resolve in safeguarding Taiwan”. As tension keeps building up across the Strait, will the U.S. intervene and finally trigger a U.S.-China hot war?
For the last few months, while analyzing the situation, quite a few observers have drawn upon the “Thucydides trap” originated from an ancient Greek historian. According to this theory, when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as an international hegemony, there will be an unavoidable tendency towards war.
To be frank, these observers may have well overestimated the strength of China. Thanks to its huge population, China has become the second largest economic entity in the world. But we are now living in an era that national strength is rather defined by technological advancement. In reality, China is militarily inferior to Russia and technologically lagging far behind major western countries. To put it simply, China is yet to be capable of challenging the American dominance.
Back in the 1980s, in the heyday of its economic development, Japan has significantly outperformed the U.S. in the capital market, and some American scholars have come to the “Japan No.1” conclusion. Despite this, there was never a sign of military confrontation between U.S. and Japan. A decade later, the formation of the European Union posed new challenge to the American supremacy. But again, the two did not come anywhere close to a war. So why has the emergence of China, which in fact lacks the capabilities to overwhelm the U.S., aroused much anticipation of war?
Rudolph Rummel, an American professor of political studies, have made a thorough analysis on the correlation between wars and democracy in human history. After humans surviving a thousand years of darkness, it was not until the independence of the U.S. in 1776 that unveiled a democratic institution with public elections, separation of powers, multi-party system as well as freedom of speech, press, religion and assembly. After more than a hundred years, in 1900 there were only 13 democratic countries in the world. And after another decade, in 2015 the rose to 130, and dictatorial states without meaningful elections have become the minority.
According to Rummel’s statistics, there were 371 wars between 1816 and 2005. Among them, 205 were fought between two dictatorial countries and 166 between democratic and dictatorial ones. Interestingly, there had not been a single war between democratic countries. The conclusion is all too obvious: if there were only democratic states on earth, wars would not happen.
And here lies the fundamental reason why the “Thucydides Trap” has been more valid in the old days when dictatorial systems prevailed, but has failed to apply in contemporary cases between two democratic countries. And it also explains why the competitions between the U.S. and Japan or the EU have not led to any war, while the challenge from China will probably end up differently.
In a democratic system, to wage a war requires a consensus among the government, legislature, media and public opinion. It is rather a matter of the people’s collective will than the ruler’s subjective decision. Whereas within a dictatorial structure, no approval from the legislature is needed, media and public opinion are never respected and judicial challenge simply does not exist. A dictator or oligarch can just go to war at will.
From a dictator’s point of view, whether to enter a war or not is not subject to external circumstance, but the domestic status of his ruling. When a dictator’s position gets shaken by severe economic downturn and widespread public discontent, he will try to divert domestic dissatisfaction by means of foreign maneuvers. The dictator tends to single out those “non-conforming groups”, as so identified by the “little pink” Chinese patriots, and tries bullying them, as what the CCP is doing in India, Hong Kong and Inner Mongolia. The objective is to distract attention with extreme nationalism. More often than not, stirring up external instability has become a tactic to secure domestic stability of the dictator’s rule.
Perhaps a shrewd dictator will weigh up the strength of his counterpart before taking action. Nevertheless, the intrinsically defective system may hinder the dictator from understanding the reality and accessing different views. And personal intellectual and intelligent inadequacies may also breed unrealistic self-inflating belief. The resulted stupidity can make a tragedy more imminent than everyone may expect.
mongolia capital 在 方志恒 Brian Fong Facebook 的最讚貼文
【#新聞點評】北京會動用解放軍嗎？香港不是89年的天安門，也不是西藏、新疆和南蒙古。解放軍一步出軍營，美國將立即取消《香港政策法》，香港國際金融中心地位隨即毀於一旦，北京將失去香港這個最重要的境外投資來源地（香港每年佔中國 FDI 總數六至七成）、上巿集資地（2018年中國企業在香港上市集資IPO金額高達35萬億美元）、銀行貸款來源地（2018 年香港各銀行對中國大陸銀行和非銀行客戶的淨債權總額高達 7,130 億元港幣）和債券融資平台（2018年中國企業在香港發行的美元債券總額高達723 億美元）—— 北京深知這些龐大的金融資本利益，至今仍無法透過上海這個中國（而不是國際）金融中心來提供。當北京早已受困於中美貿易戰、資金鏈日益脆弱之時，香港國際金融中心地位之一髮，足以牽動中共政權之全身穩定。換言之，解放軍出營之日，就是中港攬炒之時。
Will Beijing deploy PLA? Hong Kong is not Tiananmen in 1989, also not Tibet, Xinjiang and South Mongolia. Once PLA is deployed, the US will immediately abolish US-HK Policy Act, Hong Kong will lose its status as an international financial centre and then Beijing will lose its largest source of inward direct investment (usually constituting 60 to 70 percent of China’s FDI), the major listing place for Chinese companies (a total of 1,146 H-shares, Red-chips and Mainland private enterprises have been listed in Hong Kong’s main board in 2018), the important source of bank loans (in 2018 the total amount of Hong Kong banks’ net claims on bank and nonbank customers in China exceeded HKD713 billion) and the crucial platform for bond financing (in 2018 the total amount of SU bonds issued by Chinese companies in Hong Kong exceeded USD72.3 billion) —— Beijing knows it clearly that such enormous financial interests could NOT be provided by Shanghai which is just a Chinese (but not international) financial centre. When Chinese economy is on a downward spiral and increasingly facing a capital outflow crisis, the stability of the CCP regime hinges upon Hong Kong’s financial centre. In other words, once PLA is deployed, Hong Kong and China will be “burned” together.
▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
香港在中美新冷戰：自由世界前哨？紅色中國前哨？／方志恒
https://bit.ly/2K5XGHn
Hong Kong and the US-China New Cold War／Brian C. H. Fong
https://bit.ly/2HMt7El
#香港人 #反送中 #一國兩制 #香港自治 #新冷戰 #香港政策法 #香港人權民主法
#Hongkonger #NoExtradition #OCTS #HongKongAutonomy #NewColdWar #HKHRDA #StandWithHongKong
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mongolia capital 在 Dd tai Youtube 的最佳解答
銀川華廈片場是中國早期電影的搖籃，更因大話西遊等電影而聞名天下。昭君墓是中國漢代王昭君的陵墓，墓上草木常青，所以又叫「青冢」。大召寺位於城南。1580年建成，是呼和浩特最早興建的喇嘛教寺院。席力圖召是蒙古語，意爲"首席"或"法座",漢名"延壽寺"。Hohhot is the capital of Inner Mongolia.
mongolia capital 在 Let's Go to the "World's Coldest Capital City", ULAANBAATAR ... 的推薦與評價
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia's capital, is the Coldest Capital on the planet. It is in central Asia, between China and Russia. ... <看更多>