關於 public bank exchange rate ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

วิกฤติอาร์เจนตินา ที่รัฐบาลผิดนัดชำระหนี้ /โดย ลงทุนแมน
พันธบัตรรัฐบาลดูเหมือนเป็นสินทรัพย์ที่ปราศจากความเสี่ยง (Risk-free asset)
แต่ในตอนนี้มีอยู่ประเทศหนึ่ง ที่รัฐบาลไม่สามารถหาเงินมาชำระหนี้ได้
ประเทศนั้นชื่อ อาร์เจนตินา
เรื่องนี้มีที่มาเป็นอย่างไร...
Continue ReadingThe Argentina crisis that the government defaults to pay debt / invest manly.
Government bonds seem like risk free assets (Risk-free asset)
But now there is one country where the government can't afford to pay the debt.
That country is Argentina
How does this come to be?
Investing man will tell you about it.
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World economy 1,000 years. 6th typing.
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Year of July. Prof. 2010 Argentina's public debt is at 4.9 trillion baht.
Or about 44 % of GDP

Year of July. Prof. 2019 Argentina's public debt is at 11 trillion baht.
Or about 93 % of GDP

Increasing public debt is creating a heavy problem for Argentina now called Argentina the sick people of South America.

Some may not know that once in the early 20th century, Argentina was one of the world's most wealthy countries.

Because Argentina's farming industry is growing greatly from lands, fertile and climate suitable for agriculture sector.

This story is made in July. B.E. 1913 Argentina is addicted to 1 of the 10 countries with the world's highest population income.

However, time has passed 106 years
In the year. B.E. 2019 Argentina's per capita income falls to 66 of the world.

The beginning of economic fragility of a country is born from 2 main causes.

1. Political unrest, which comes from the Revolution of the military and corruption of cuddle Politicians.

2. Policy implementation of many leaders in the past who wanted to create a nationalist and bring in printing and budget spending, large amounts of balance.

When things are like this, it causes financial burden to the country.

Argentina has experienced various problems like a strong patient.

So how does this affect Argentina?

Year of July. Prof. 2019 The country's inflation rate is at 54 % highest in almost 30 years.
And the 5th highest in the world

During the year of July B.E. 2009-2019 Argentina has a budget deficit every year, making Argentina one of the world's longest budgeted countries.

The government's debt burden is increasingly composed to high-level inflation. This is why the Argentine peso goes down quickly.

If we exchanged $ 1 for Argentina pesos
Year of July. B.E. 2009 will exchange for 3.8 Argentina pesos
Year of July. B.E. 2019 will exchange for 60 Argentina pesos

The country's money is almost 1,480 % weaker. Many people may think that one side of peso money should help the export sector of the country, but it doesn't seem like much. Because today, the export sector is just 14 % of the country's exports. GDP value only

Peso's weakening of money makes the central bank have to use the reserve to keep the money from severely weakening.

But this has reduced the central bank reserve substantially from 2.1 trillion baht in July. B.E. 2018
Only 1.2 trillion baht left now.

Argentina needs help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) worth over 1.8 trillion baht, which is the most critical country's subsidy in IMF history.

However, another bad joke is
Currently, the public debt burden that the Argentina government has is 80 % in foreign debt and most are in the picture of US dollars.

The weakness of Argentina peso compared to US dollars makes the country's debt increase because more Argentina peso is required to pay the same debt.

We can imagine that 10 years ago
If we owe $ 1
We will spend just 3.8 Argentina pesos to exchange $ 1 to pay back debt.

But come today, we're spending 60 Argentina pesos to exchange $ 1 to pay back debt.

This kind of thing has happened to Thailand in July. Prof. 1997 Many people remember that we need to spend 2 times more money to pay the same debt.

But Argentina is now not 2 times more debt, but ten times more debt..

The Argentina government currently has foreign debt for over 2 trillion baht and recently, the Argentina government has just defaulted to pay the debt (Default). Pay interest in stock loan amounts of over 16,000 million baht.

The government has previously negotiated restructuring debt with creditors to pay down interest and delay debt repayment, but it is rejected by creditors. Now the Argentine government needs to revisit the new offer to negotiate with creditors again.

Which now doesn't know what the final conclusion of this story will be.
But for sure, if the Argentina government can't afford to pay debt to the creditors, the story may be worse than we see now.

While Argentina's debts pay interest for the 9th Argentina in country history after Argentina has experienced total 8 moratorium defaults since Spain independence in July. Prof. 1816 or 204 years ago

This may be a lesson for many countries to learn things from countries that have experienced problems in order to avoid and not follow those countries.

Thailand now seems far from being Argentina
But be careful because everything, if careless, it can always happen..
╔═══════════╗
If you want to know the way of the world economy, you need to understand
World economy 1,000 years. 6th typing.
Order at (get 10 % discount from the cover price of 350 baht)
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References
-https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/government-debt-to-gdp
-https://www.statista.com/statistics/316929/national-debt-of-argentina-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina
-https://www.statista.com/statistics/316750/inflation-rate-in-argentina/
-https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-economy/argentinas-economic-crisis-explained-in-five-charts-idUSKCN1LD1S7
-https://www.ft.com/content/e6f5c436-37d2-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4
-https://www.statista.com/statistics/316916/argentinas-budget-balance-in-relation-to-gdp/
-https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49429361
-https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/argentinas-government-appears-set-to-default-citing-covid-19-pandemic.html
-https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/22/argentina-set-for-default-as-bondholders-reject-new-terms
-https://www.dw.com/en/argentina-in-default-for-second-time-this-century/a-53542302Translated

呢排小弟突然之間好想數下銀紙，所以落左樓下HSBC㩒機。

隔離有個叔叔，係咁隊張卡入機都彈返出來，我好心提佢話：「叔叔呀，你反轉左張卡喇，磁帶向下呀。」

「唔該晒你呀，我平時都係去銀行排長龍嘅，但尋日恒生又唔開，無得拎晒啲錢出來。」

「唔使驚喎，政府話唔會凍結戶口嫁嘛。」我微笑說。

「丫你唔係信佢呀？哥仔你夠㩒咁多出黎啦！」

我信政府㗎，佢一直都咁信得過，又幾千億庫房咁穩健。

只不過我最近得閒，螞蟻搬家咁少少地拎幾十萬出黎數下，點會有問題啫，係咪？

大家都要留返啲錢在銀行呀，唔好信啲流言！

【謠言止於智者】
金管局今日留意到社交媒體流傳多個不實訊息，惡意製造恐慌。

金管局呼籲市民不要相信流言，小心核實訊息。

香港銀行體系十分穩健，流動資金充裕，資產質素良好，有能力應對不同衝擊。

金管局重申不需要也無意改變行之有效的聯匯制度，我們有能力、資源及決心維持香港貨幣及金融穩定。

另外，金管局亦注意到市民於個別銀行櫃員機輪候提款時間較平常長。銀行已採取措施，適時補充櫃員機和分行的鈔票供應。各銀行有足夠流動資金應付市民需要。

[Rumours End with Sage]
The HKMA noted today that a number of rumours are being circulated in social media in a malicious attempt to cause panic among the public.

Members of the public should be cautious of rumours and verify information carefully.

The Hong Kong banking system, with ample liquidity and very good asset quality, is robust and sound. It is well positioned to withstand any market volatilities.

The HKMA reiterates that it sees no need and has no intention of changing the well-established Linked Exchange Rate System. The HKMA has the capability, resources and commitment to safeguard Hong Kong’s monetary and financial stability.

The HKMA also noted that the waiting time for cash withdrawal at individual bank ATMs is longer than usual. Banks have taken measures to replenish banknotes in a timely manner. Banks have sufficient supply of banknotes to meet the needs of the public.

#HKMAGOVHK #香港金融管理局 #金管局

塔什干的考驗 Trials of Tashkent

每到一個新的國家，我往往都會經歷一段撞牆期，這段期間因為對環境不熟悉，或者現場情況和網路上說的不一樣，會有種做什麼事情都不順的鬼打牆感，而且也得花上額外的時間去解決。這就是我在烏茲別克第一天的感覺。

從伊斯坦堡飛到烏國首都塔什干，早上七點順利在機場拿到簽證並入境。正當我還在高興一切照著計畫進行、沒有意外的時候，撞牆期的挑戰便接踵而來。

Whenever I travel to a new country, the first day can always be challenging. I often have to spend extra time and effort to deal with unexpected circumstances in the unfamiliar environment. Sometimes it could be quite frustrating. This is what I experienced on my first day in Uzbekistan.

The flight from Istanbul to Tashkent landed at 6:30am, and I passed the immigration smoothly around 7am. The easy experience, however, didn’t last long.

首先，我那號稱可以漫遊130多國的手機，在抵達塔什干之後的確是連上了漫遊，但只維持了短短30秒，接下來得透過手動設定在半小時後重新連上，但同樣的30秒之後又會再次斷線；在青年旅館用wifi問了美國那邊的客服，始終無法解決。那時候心想，好吧，沒有漫遊就沒漫遊，城市裡總會有些像車站或政府機關附近有wifi吧？殊不知這個城市裡還真的完全沒有公用的wifi，最後只好靠著紙本與離線地圖在這個陌生的城市裡撐過一整天。

接下來是換錢。一般而言，機場的匯率都不太好，因此我一開始就打定主意要進市區之後在再換錢，卻忘了那天其實是個國定假日,所有的銀行都休息一天，而偏偏自動提款機在這個國家又是稀有物。最後好不容易在市中心找到了一台ATM，直接用跨國跨行提款的方式拿到了烏茲別克的萬元大鈔。（烏茲別克的貨幣som對美金大約是1:8000，拿著幾百萬元到處跑是這邊的常態。）

下一個挑戰是語言。塔什干作為一個首都，很多指標都有雙語標示，但是這個「雙語」指的是烏茲別克語和俄語，兩個我不懂的語言，這個問題在搭地鐵要看表示換車時尤其麻煩。後來我的策略是讀俄文，至少出發前背過西里爾字母，可以像日文片假名那樣先讀出來再猜意思。

First trial: no mobile data on my cell phone. My carrier claims that data roaming is available in Uzbekistan, and it was - only in the first 30 seconds. After that I could reconnect occasionally, but didn’t last any longer. Then I thought, this is not too bad. Tashkent is the capital, and it should be possible to find public wifi networks somewhere? I was wrong. It was impossible to find any public wifi in the city. I had to live on paper and offline maps all day.

Trial #2: currency exchange. Since the exchange shops at airport usually don’t offer good rate, I decided not to do exchange at the airport, and it was proven to be a wrong decision. As I arrived on a national holiday, no bank was open, and ATM was scarce in the city. After a couple of hours of search and 3-mile walk, I finally withdrew cash from my US account at one of the few ATMs in the city.

Trial #3: reading signs. Many sings in Tashkent are bilingual, but they are bilingual in Uzbek and Russian. It was particularly challenging in the subway, where you have to understand the signs to get on the right train. Eventually the strategy I developed was to read Russian first, as at least I can try to pronounce Cyrillic alphabets and guess what the words mean.

最後一個挑戰是：發現這個市區比我想的要乏味一些。這裡不像我接下來要拜訪的那些充滿歷史氣息的絲路古城，整個城市瀰漫著濃濃的前蘇聯風味：寬大筆直的網狀街道、龐大堂皇卻不得其門而入的公共建築、隨處可見的警察和軍人，走在街上嗅不太什麼人文氣氣息；幸好大街以外的世界還是有著驚喜：讓人聯想到以前駱駝商隊的露天市集、香料味四溢的抓飯、宛如地下宮殿的地鐵站。對於想要來看世界文化遺產的旅人來說，塔什干只是個路過地方，給我的整體印象也不算太好，但不可否認它的中亞融合蘇聯風味仍然是個賣點。

塔什干碰到的各種挑戰讓我對這個國家的印象不是太好，幸好當天晚上搭上了一班長途火車，這段人生至此最難忘的火車旅程將第一天的陰霾一掃而空。火車上究竟發生了什麼事情？請待下回分曉。

Last trail: this city is not as attractive as I thought. Like many other Soviet Union cities, it was rationally designed and to some extent dehumanized. This is drastically different from the Uzbek cities I’m going to visit, which are full of cultural heritage and history. Fortunately, there are still some hidden gems in the city: delicious plov (rice plate), vibrant bazaar, gorgeous subway stations, etc. Soviet ideology and central Asian culture come together here. Tashkent is not a big tourist city, but it attracts people in its own unique way.

Although the first impression was not that great, the train trip that night was the most unforgettable one in my whole life. What happened on the train? Will share in my next post :)

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