關於 truman administration ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

我們都不知道，到底美國人會選誰當他們的下一任總統。
　
在時局不明時，我個人喜歡看看有洞見的知識分子，尤其是能融會貫通歷史的學者，怎麼分析。聽聽他們的說法，也看看有沒有自己漏掉的角度。
　
結果不一定對，但光是看人家怎麼思考，都能學到很多。
　
Niall Ferguson 是英國訓練的歷史學者，目前在美國哈佛工作，國籍美國，是典型的保守派知識分子，學問淵博，且頗有洞見。
　
這個專訪應該是在拜登家族醜聞爭議之前做的，記者問他，認為誰會當選。
　
即使他很不喜歡這麼說，但他認為是拜登。
　
主要原因是，川普做了四年，支持群眾沒有增加，而其核心支持者，教育程度不高的白人，也逐漸在流失支持中。而希拉蕊比較討人厭，但拜登還好。
　
對於美國今天的狀況，他認為，如果當初歐巴馬只當一任，第二次競選由共和黨羅姆尼當選，今天的美國，不會撕裂得這麼嚴重。
　
他說，如果當初羅姆尼當選，共和黨的成熟穩健路線就可以維持，避免四年後的川普崛起，美國社會不會被撕裂得這麼嚴重。
　
至於拜登當選之後，他認為目前的二次冷戰，很有可能被轉換為第三次世界大戰。
　
這是他根據歷史歸納的，如果民主黨因為國內議題上台之後，就常會在海外造成戰爭。包括：Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon Johnson.
　
而拜登被拖入第三次世界大戰的引爆點，他認為是台灣。
　
因為拜登已經承諾了許多國內經濟振興方案，需要大量的金錢與精力，一旦注意力放在這邊，習近平就會把握機會攻擊台灣，而第三次世界大戰可能從這裡引爆。
　
我想這樣的分析，目前台灣的政府也會考慮到。
　
如果真的拜登當選，美國在二次冷戰決定收手，並在亞洲缺席，而讓中國擴張主義得逞，我們必須有足夠好的國防，能夠擋住第一波攻勢，取得與國際串連的機會。
　
與日本的關係要保持好，印度、澳洲等國也要有直接的聯繫。
　
自己的戰備、自己的潛艇、戰鬥機、軍隊動員，都必須準備好。撐到中國在周邊跟其他國家也有衝突，就能繼續保持我們想要的生活狀態。
　
- Niall Ferguson: “America would be a lot less torn if Obama had been a one-term president” / Pledge Times
https://bit.ly/3o86HjR

更新：原文不明原因移除，這裡是另一個轉載版本，內容一樣。
https://alkhaleejtoday.co/international/5100598/Niall-Ferguson-Biden-is-going-to-win-I-don%E2%80%99t-see.html
　
Joe Biden is a much less unpopular figure than Hillary Clinton. The economy is in a hole and, of course, the president has made a major botch with covid-19. So I think Joe Biden is going to win.
　
I have observed over a century of American history that often, when Democratic presidents are elected with an important domestic agenda, they end up waging great wars. It happened to Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon Johnson. And almost Jimmy Carter too, but he avoided going to war in Afghanistan. It is only in the recent past that Democrats have been inclined to avoid wars, in the cases of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. You could see a scenario where the Biden Administration comes to power ready to do all kinds of spending on social services, education, raising taxes, doing those usual things, and it runs into a crisis over Taiwan. I think China is going to force that issue at some point. And the smart time to do so would be right at the beginning of a Biden presidency. The Second Cold War is structural, it is not of any specific presidency, it is a structural strategic rivalry like the First Cold War, and Biden’s main problem is that the Second Cold War will not leave him alone to do his domestic agenda. You have to look closely at what is happening in Taiwan, what Xi does to legitimize his position and exploit the weaknesses he sees.

I sincerely hope I am wrong | Lee Yee

I know very little about American issues. In the past, I even thought that no matter which party wins the presidential election, there would be no significant difference under the Constitution and the existing system. However, it is different this time. This US presidential election not only involves the interests of the Americans but also concerns the future political situation of the world, especially for China and Hong Kong.

The state of society tearing as a result of this presidential election is far beyond any from the past, almost to the point of a civil war. As far as the domestic situation in the US is concerned, it is not a dispute between supporting Trump or supporting Biden, but a fight between support for Trump and opposition to Trump. The topics of discussion are 1) epidemic prevention and control measures, 2) violence and disorder due to the Black Lives Matter protests, and 3) economy. Arguments from both standpoints are too numerous to detail and many are reasonable with solid judgment. It is very difficult to explain clearly in this short article. I will only discuss the history and current situation of Sino-US relations.

The most important timeline in the history of the modern relations between China and the US is after WWII during the Chinese Civil War between the Kuomintang (KMT)-led government of the Republic of China and the Communist Party of China (CPC). At that time, the 33rd president of the US and leader of the Democratic Party, Harry S. Truman pursued a policy of appeasement to the CPC and actively advocated negotiations between the KMT and the CPC. During the Chinese Civil War, it was apparent that he was pro-communist and made the communist military stronger. The KMT was defeated for internal reasons but the US inclination was key. After the KMT government retreated to Taiwan, in January 1950, President Truman issued a statement that the US would not intervene with the situation in China and declared that the island groups of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu and some minor islands were not within the scope of the US military. The US Democratic Party allowed mainland China to fall into the hands of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Later, Chiang Kai-shek commissioned General Ho Shai-lai to Tokyo to meet with Douglas MacArthur, the American general who administered postwar Japan during the Allied occupation and oversaw the occupation, rebuilding and democratization of Japan. The visit aimed to win the support of General MacArthur and was ultimately able to save Taiwan.

Another important page in the history of the Sino-US relations was the diplomatic breakthrough of Republican US President Richard Nixon in 1971. A military conflict broke out in the previous year at the border of China and the then Soviet Union. The Soviet Union intended to deploy nuclear weapons to perform a so-called “surgical removal operation” on China’s nuclear base. However, it was halted when it probed the US for reactions. The US stated that if the Soviet Union employed nuclear weapons, it would undoubtedly challenge the US nuclear balance policy. After that, when the US collaborated with China to strategically deal with the superpower Soviet Union, the US did not abandon Taiwan. Not until 1979 when Jimmy Carter, the 39th president of the US and a democrat, established diplomatic relations with the CCP that the US severed ties with Taiwan. The incident triggered a global trend to set up diplomatic relations with the CCP, which enabled the CCP to steady a firm holding in the international community.

The third important aspect in the history of the Sino-US relations was in 2000, under Bill Clinton’s administration, China was given entry into the WTO (World Trade Organization) and granted a most favored nation (MFN) status. Since then, it developed its foothold as an international manufacturer in the global market. Furthermore, its economy took off through intellectual property theft, failure to commit to the promise of its 2001 accession to the WTO and market dominance by means of authoritarian capitalism. As China’s economic development fully penetrates into the Western world, on the one hand, it takes advantage of the multinational companies invested in China to control the capital markets of the US and the West. On the other hand, it invests heavily in its grand propaganda to control overseas Chinese media and even Western mainstream media.

Every election candidate receives donations from multinational companies. Not to mention 90% of the mainstream media in the US are owned or operated by these Democratic Party’s donors. Therefore, they turn a blind eye to the elephant in the room and injudiciously embrace the CCP regime that has infiltrated the American society and continuously infringed on human rights at home. In addition to the interest considerations, the media of course also has the leftist ideology permeated in Western academia and journalism. I will elaborate on this topic at another time.

Finally, there is Trump who is not swayed by the donors of multinational corporations because he himself does not lack money nor is he afraid to offend most of the leftist media. He sometimes speaks without thinking but he never seeks the so-called “political correctness,” and basically does what he says he would. People who stand on the moral high ground with the spirit of great love would shake their heads upon his words and actions. Regardless, only a person like Trump can start to contain the power that infiltrated the US and the Western world, and support the democracy of Taiwan and Hong Kong’s campaign for autonomy.

Currently, anti-China is the general social conscience in the US. Biden’s China policy seems to align with that of Trump’s. Biden even defined the CCP’s handling of Xinjiang as an “ethnic genocide.” However, is there really no difference between the two parties? Recall that when Clinton was running for the presidency, he said that he opposed the Republican government’s annual review of the US MFN status for China. He believed it should not be granted but after he took office, he made China’s MFN status permanent and sent China to the WTO.

As the Democratic Party controls Wall Street and mainstream media, I am not optimistic about Trump in this election. Even so, I really hope from my brain to my heart that I am wrong.