【樓價高企】美國樓市會再度泡沫化嗎?
現今美國樓市正打得火熱,感覺很像2006年的樓市泡沫時期:樓價創下新高、住宅拍賣火藥味十足、新城區的房屋剛建好便一售而空。這又是一場房地產泡沫嗎?但願不是,因為上一次的房地產泡沫破滅引發了全球金融危機,令經濟陷入1930年代大蕭條後最低迷的時期。
不過,當前樓價上漲的主要原因並不是因為信貸過鬆,而是供應緊張、需求旺盛。與以前相比,現時在美國申請住宅按揭貸款的難度明顯加大了。2006年6月,反映取得住宅按揭貸款難易程度的易得指數(Mortgage Credit Availability Index)高達近870。而在今年3月,該指數僅為125。放貸機構將貸款標準提升至高於2010年《多德‧弗蘭克法案》要求的水平—該法案正是2008年金融危機後,旨在限制系統性風險的產物。如今貸款相對房屋價值和借款人收入的比例較小,借款人的平均信用評分較高,民眾亦無法在不提供完整證明文件的情況下,空口無憑地獲批貸款。
美國企業研究所(American Enterprise Institute)常任研究員平托(Edward Pinto)預測,到今年7月,樓價按年升幅將達到18%, 而2022年將上漲約10%。約翰伯恩斯房地產顧問公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)行政總裁約翰伯恩斯(John Burns)亦表示:「我相信樓價還會進一步上漲。」他沒有給出具體數字,但指出,這「將會增加市場風險」。
密歇根大學(University of Michigan)於4月進行的消費者調查顯示,未來一年裡,房屋價格的平均預期增幅為3.5%,是自2007年此問題被加入問卷以來的最高水平。如果房屋價格沒有起色甚至下降的話,一些置業人士無疑會持幣觀望,從而令房屋價格陷入跌勢。另一方面,按揭貸款的發放變得更為謹慎,大大減低連鎖違約的風險。美國樓價的確很貴,但這一次看起來不像是危險泡沫的前兆。——Peter Coy;譯 曉立
#美國樓市 #房地產泡沫 #住宅按揭貸款 #AmericanEnterpriseInstitute #JohnBurnsRealEstateConsulting
(本文節選自《彭博商業周刊∕中文版》第223期,如欲查閱全文,歡迎訂閱)
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陳雲:美國自由派政治及文化雜誌《大西洋雜誌》報導陳雲,說我是特朗普在香港的最忠實支持者,撰寫《特朗普厚黑學》(2017)支持特朗普,主張舉美國旗向美國示好及締結友誼,並且分析特朗普的務實政治及保護世界免收共產主義危害。文章的首三段、中段及結尾壓卷一段都是引述陳雲對特朗普的見解。
//To speak to Wan Chin, the host of a YouTube politics show, is to hear echoes of American conservative radio: An “invasion” of immigrants is crossing the border, filling public housing and sapping up limited government resources, he told me; the coronavirus is a “Frankenstein” superbug weaponized in a Chinese lab; and President Donald Trump’s “Rambo way” of leadership has finally called out China for its hostilities. When Trump was diagnosed with COVID-19, Chin took to Facebook to wish him “a speedy recovery from the mild flu,” parroting the president’s own downplaying of the virus’s severity.
Chin isn’t an American shock jock, though. In fact, he doesn’t even live in the United States. He is, instead, an early and prominent advocate of Hong Kong’s prodemocracy movement: His 2011 book, On the Hong Kong City-State, was a formative text for the localist movement, which seeks to promote and protect Hong Kong’s identity and way of life, separate from that of mainland China. Chin, a former professor, peppered his opinions with historical references to ancient Chinese dynasties and arcane tidbits from folk tales. The walls of his office are lined with Chinese and Buddhist shrines, ornately carved out of dark wood. As he spoke, a woman entered and lit a small bunch of incense, the fragrant smoke twisting upward toward a red “Make Hong Kong Great Again” T-shirt hanging near the door.
Chin is also an unapologetic cheerleader for Trump, whom he calls a “hero,” and he is far from alone. This city lies at the forefront of the global fight for democracy, a place where protesters have for more than a year stood against Beijing’s attack on Hong Kong’s autonomy, free press, and liberal institutions. Yet support for the president—whose own assault on democratic norms, gushing over the Tiananmen Square massacre, on-again, off-again praise of Chinese President Xi Jinping, initial lukewarm support of Hong Kong’s protest movement, and self-admitted slow-rolling of sanctions over Xinjiang’s mass-detention camps in favor of a trade deal—remains stronger in some quarters than for his Democratic rival, Joe Biden.
Following Trump’s election in 2016, Chin published The Trump Strategy, a book that analyzed the president’s dealings with China. Last year, when enormous protests erupted in Hong Kong, Chin urged his supporters to carry Trump flags and wear Trump gear to protests as punitive legislation targeting Hong Kong was making its way through Washington, playing to the president’s oversize ego and hoping to “catch his eye.” Chin told me he was drawn to Trump’s rhetoric on the economic risk China poses to the world, and used Hong Kong as an example of what he saw as state capture accomplished through Chinese state-owned enterprises—snatching up newspapers and swathes of real estate since the city returned to Chinese rule in 1997—as the type of threat Trump was sounding the alarm against...
Chin, the political commentator, said Trump had created irreversible momentum against China, but he nevertheless acknowledged the president’s contradictions. He is “a good leader, but not a democratic leader,” he told me. During his time in office, Trump had been “violating a lot of good practice of democracy,” he added, but, in exchange for taking on China, this was a “necessary evil.”//
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【每日國際選讀】
#文末挑戰多益選擇題📝
美中「新」貿易戰
最終得利是亞太?
開啟「接收通知」和「搶先看」每天吸收雙語時事新知
來讀華爾街日報獨家
🔥 Meet the New Trade War. It’s Not the Same as the Old Trade War.
美中新貿易戰恐拉開序幕,劇情料有所不同
🤔 The president on Wednesday said that he was “watching closely” to see if China was living up to trade-deal commitments to purchase large quantities of American goods, and could know one way or another within weeks.
川普於上周三表示,他正在「密切關注」中國是否有履行貿易協議,購買大量的美國商品,且無論如何會在數周內知曉實際情況。
- watch closely 密切關注
✍️ watch也常表示「監視;注意」的意思,watch closely就是常見的相關表達,可別誤以為是「很近的看」囉
- live up to 無愧於、實踐,這邊指的是中國「確實履行」當初的貿易承諾
- one way or another 以某種方式/無論如何,無論怎樣
✏️That was followed Thursday by Chinese trade data showing a surge of exports in April and falling imports. In yuan terms, imports from the U.S. were down 3% in the first four months of the year compared with the same period last year, according to China’s customs administration, not exactly what President Trump wants to see.
隨後,中國在上周四公布的貿易數據中顯示,4月出口大幅增長,進口則下降。中國海關總署的數據顯示,以人民幣計算,今年頭四個月從美國的進口較上年同期下降3%,而這並非川普所樂見的。
- surge 遽增,急遽上升
- yuan 元(中國標準貨幣單位)
✍️另外一個常見的是日圓:Japanese yen
- customs 海關
✍️ custom 是風俗、習慣之意,當「海關」時注意要加”s”喔
😯The stage seems set for a renewed flare-up in trade tensions. But the drama could play out differently this time. The trade war of 2018 and 2019 did damage China, but not enough to elicit meaningful changes to its mercantilist industrial policy.
美中貿易的緊張局勢似乎將再度升溫,但這一次,劇情可能有所不同。2018年和2019年的貿易戰確實對中國造成了衝擊,但還不足以促使該國對其重商主義的產業政策做出有意義的變革。
- flare-up (暴力、疼痛或憤怒)爆發,突發,加劇
- elicit 引出,探出,誘出(尤指資訊或反應)
- mercantilist 重商主義
未完待續...
其實這場美中貿易戰
將讓亞太其他國家得利?
加入文末每日國際選讀計畫,解鎖完整語音導讀版
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❓Quiz: The real estate agents ______ to the _____ in house prices recently.
房仲業者緊密關注近期的房價飛漲。
🙋🏻♀🙋🏼♀
A. see closely/ sarge
B. watch closely/ sausage
C. watch closely/ surge
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Welcome to Motivational Monday and Episode 1 of Steve's POV Garage Talk Motivational Series; where I hope to inspire and motivate you with some real life, very unique experiences I have had over the years living, learning and doing business in Japan, starting a Youtube channel and Realty business @carsncastles and trying to give back to others with good advice from things I have learned to hopefully benefit your own future!! You won't hear this same type of talk anywhere; I promise you no BS and genuine motivation for your week!! Thanks for watching, Please subscribe!! This will be a weekly Monday morning series going forward!
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America Real Estate, Inc. is a real estate office located in the southside of Chicago and has been a party of the community since 1998. Our Real Estate ... ... <看更多>