ประเทศไทย ในมุมมอง นักลงทุนต่างชาติ /โดย ลงทุนแมน
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Continue ReadingThailand in Foreign Investors View / Investman
Many people say that Thailand is not a major target for foreign investors like in the past because we are losing some competitiveness compared to other countries.
How is this? If it's true today, how should we prepare to bring Thailand back to the important target of foreign investors. Investman will tell you about it.
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Situation and economic update with Blockdit
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If you talk about foreign investment to be easily understood, let's split into 2 types.
1) Foreign Direct Investment
2) Investment in the financial market, which in this case emphasizes on investment in the stock exchange of foreign investors.
These 2 sections are important to reflect how much foreign investors are interested in investing in Thailand.
Foreign Direct Investment (Foreign Direct Investment or FDI) is a key factor that affects economic growth of the country.
As FDI's coming in, it doesn't only cause investment, employment, but also as portraying and technology development. It will eventually cause the country's economy to grow, average income and quality of life for domestic population.
However, it seems that FDI value that entered Thailand in the last 10 years is likely decreasing.
Year 2010-2014 FDI worth entering Thailand on average 321,000 million baht.
Year 2015-2019 FDI worth entering Thailand on average 247,000 million baht.
But, you know, in the past 10 years, FDI that entered ASEAN nationwide from 1.3 trillion baht to 4.7 trillion baht. This has resulted in the economy of many countries in this region to grow remarkably. Over the years.
The average GDP of many neighboring countries such as Cambodia, Philippines, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, grows an average of 6-7 % per year. Or, if it's simply explained, the economic value of the country grows around 10 years.
While in the past 10 years, Thailand's GDP grew an average of 3.5 % or half of its economic growth in neighboring countries.
This may be due to several of our structural issues changing.
Thai elderly population proportion, increasing continuously, will diminish long-term consumption and labor number of countries and result in less investment necessities that will hit employment and eventually slow the economy down.
Population in labour age is decreasing, leading countries to rely on labour to drive economic economies like Thailand.
Nowadays, about 1 in 3 of Thailand's workforce is in agriculture and agriculture sector. It's still in the manufacturing industry, selling. All of them are mainly labor-dependent industries.
Doesn't include any other issues like
Political unrest issues
Readiness of basic utility system
Corruption problem
A shortage of skilled workers that are barriers to developing countries.
We must admit that these matters not only decrease FDI value in Thailand during the past, but it will also slow down the future economic growth trend, and it will also slow down the interest of foreign investors on the Thai stock market.
Do you know that in between 2010-2019 or in 10 years, foreign investors sell collectible shares higher than 512,000 million Baht?
While the first 6 months of this year
Foreign investors have sold Thai stocks for over 216,000 million baht.
The interesting thing is that for those who think that foreign investors have sold a lot of stocks in the stock market. There may be a few stocks left. Then we may have to re
Because even the proportion of the stock holding of foreign investors in Thai stock market per cap. That's reduced from 37 % during 2012 to 30 % in 2019, but the remaining value is higher than 5 trillion baht.
And selling shares of foreign investors is one reason why the Thai stock market seems to go nowhere, especially in the last 6 years.
In summary, both foreign direct investments (FDI) will affect Thailand's real economic sector is decreasing compared to the past and foreign investors are also selling securities because they see the country's economic growth trend seems less interesting.
Therefore, our Thailand doesn't just require investment, improve performance, technology, and innovation to create value-added industries and reduce labor-oriented industries like before to help increase nation's income.
But it has to be including solving problems, labour problems, lack of skills, corruption problems, peaceful, politically accumulated for long time.
If this is like an eastern tale, it would be similar to a rabbit tale and a famous turtle that in the last decades, Thailand used to be a country where the economy grew fast and overtook many countries, especially the neighboring countries far away.
It looks like we're about to finish and leave our rivals without dust.
But then one day, when we run fast, we run slower, start walking, and don't stop walking while our rivals run faster.
Even today we may be ahead of many countries.
But no one can guarantee that
In the future, we will not be overtaken as in tales..
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References
-https://www.aseanstats.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ASYB_2019.pdf
-https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=654&language=eng
-https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=TH
-https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=638&language=th
-https://www.set.or.th/th/market/market_statistics.html
-https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/ResearchAndPublications/DocLib_/Article_7Nov2017.pdf
-https://www.thebangkokinsight.com/304526/Translated
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สรุปเศรษฐกิจไทย ย้อนหลัง 35 ปี /โดย ลงทุนแมน
จริงๆ แล้ว ช่วงก่อนเกิด Covid-19 เศรษฐกิจไทยมีการเติบโตที่ชะลอตัวอยู่แล้ว
ซึ่งแน่นอนว่า การระบาดของ Covid-19 ก็ทำให้เศรษฐกิจของเรายิ่งย่ำแย่ลงไปอีก
ตอนนี้สงคราม Covid-19 ในประเทศไทยดูเหมือนจะใกล้จบลง...
Continue ReadingSummary of Thai economy 35 years back / by Investing Man.
In fact, before Covid-19, the Thai economy has slowed growth.
The Covid-19 outbreak certainly makes our economy worse.
Now the Covid-19 war in Thailand seems to be close to ending.
But the economic war we are facing seems to never end easily.
How interesting is this? Invest man will tell you about it.
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Register to join. Listen at https://bit.ly/3bVHbqA
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One of the important beginnings that made Thailand's economy grow in the past. Happened in July. B.E. 1985
When the US that was a huge trade deficit, wanted to reduce USD in comparison to major currency such as Japanese yen and Western Germany's mark, that incident led to Plaza Accord deal.
Even Thailand doesn't directly contribute to such things, but the weakening of US dollars has greatly positively affected the economy of Thailand.
At that time, Thailand has a baht bankrupted with 10 currency basket of the world's main currency. But over 80 % is tied to the USD. This is why the export sector of Thailand has an anime. Let's go too.
Moreover, Japanese yen is heavier than it hits the country's export sector.
This makes the government and private sector of Japan need to look for potential manufacturing bases to do exports, especially in countries where there is no higher wage costs.
While the unrest is neat because the war between Vietnam and Cambodia has resulted in Thailand to become the top choice of Japan and many countries.
Foreign direct investment comes into Thailand to create a phenomenon called the decade of growth of Thailand.
Eastern Seaboard Development Area Development Project is also available for heavy industrial development to create economic value for Thailand in the long term.
This story is why during 1987-1996, the Thai economy grows on average 9.3 % per year, especially in 1988 that has reached 13.3 % level.
This story makes many people say that Thailand will become the 5th tiger of Asia or countries where the economy is rapidly evolving like Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. These 4 countries have become now developed countries.
But this kind of picture that many people hope to happen to Thailand again. It seems to be faded.
Because in the past 10 years, Thai economy has likely slowed down continuously.
Year 2010-2014 GDP Thailand grows on average 3.9 % per year.
Year 2015-2019 GDP Thailand grows on average 3.4 % per year.
The latest in 1 quarter, 2020 Thai economy is 1.8 % negative and it's quite certain that the 2th quarter is ending. Thai economy will be heavily negative because of losing tourists and social distances.
Year 2019 export sector worth 7.6 trillion baht or around 45 % of GDP value.
The income from foreign tourists is worth 1.9 trillion baht or around 11 % of GDP.
The competitiveness of these 2 industries is also based on the movement of Baht.
Now the baht is getting heavier again. Many people are concerned that it will affect future export and tourism income. Even Covid-19 situation in Thailand will look better.
Even the Bank of Thailand is trying to take care of the money from being too hard by selling Baht and buying US dollars.
The evidence is that the Bank of Thailand's international reserve capital has risen more than $ 10,000 million in March to May this year, but it seems that the baht continues to rise.
Of course, the hardness of the baht is both good and bad.
But for Thailand relying on exports and tourism in a greater proportion, it seems to be negatively affecting the Thai economy in the overview.
In the past, we often hear news that many companies gradually close business. Many companies reduce investment. Due to not being able to tolerate the economic downturn, we see increasing number of unemployed countries.
End of quarter 1/2019 There are 346,480 unemployed people in Thailand.
End of quarter 1/2020 There are 391,770 unemployed people in Thailand.
When combined with new graduates entering the labour market, around 400,000 people may increase the number of unemployed in the future.
Information from the industrial department indicates that the number of licensed and informed companies are likely to decrease.
First 4 months of 2019 number of 1,054 Factory
First 4 months of 2020 number of 876 Factory
Moreover, foreign direct investment, which is an investment in the real economic sector through bringing resources, manufacturing, labor and technology into destination countries. Most of which are long-term investments for Thailand are likely to slow down since 2018
Year 2018 Foreign direct investment equals 426,749 million Baht.
Year 2019 Foreign direct investment equals 196,350 million Baht.
Specifically, the investment from Japan in 2019 is reduced to just 79,264 million baht below the level of hundred thousand million baht for the first time since 2015
It seems that the situation of Thailand's Covid-19 is slowly getting better, but there are many things that are challenging the country's economy.
How do we get the country back to growth
How can we make our country move beyond developing countries into developed countries?
To make Thai people live better lives.
Which questions these questions.
It's a question that has been in the heart of many Thai people for long
And it should continue to be the question of our children's generation..
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References
-https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=TH
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Map_Ta_Phut_Industrial_Estate
-https://www.nesdc.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=10212&filename=QGDP_report
-http://tradereport.moc.go.th/Report/Default.aspx?Report=TradeBalanceMonthly&Lang=Th
-https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=80&language=TH
-https://www.diw.go.th/hawk/content.php?mode=spss63
-https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=653&language=thTranslated
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An honest look at how safe it is to live in China...
Murder happens, but is underreported.
In 2011, the reported murder rate in China was 1.0 per 100,000 people, with 13,410 murders. The murder rate in 2010 was 1.1.
Corruption
Further information: Corruption in China
The PRC is a one-party state ruled by the Communist Party of China,[9] Corruption exists in China, just like in any other country. The cost thereof to the economy is significant. Between 1978 and 2003, an estimated $50 billion was smuggled out of the country by corrupt officials.
Coercion
Violent crime exits in China, though to a lesser degree than in the US.
Human trafficking
Further information: Human trafficking in China
There are instances of human trafficking reported in China for various purposes. The majority of trafficking in PRC is internal and this domestic trafficking is the most significant human trafficking problem in the country.
Women are lured through false promises of legitimate employment into commercial sexual exploitation in Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, and Japan. Chinese men are smuggled to countries throughout the world for exploitative labor.Women and children are trafficked into PRC from Mongolia, Burma, North Korea, Russia, and Vietnam for forced labor and sexual slavery.
Drug trade
Further information: Illegal drug trade in China
PRC is a major transshipment point for heroin produced in the Golden Triangle. Growing domestic drug abuse is a significant problem in PRC. Available estimates place the domestic spending on illegal drugs to be $17 billion.
Domestic violence
Further information: Domestic violence in China
China has a high rate of domestic violence.[15] In 2004, the All-China Women’s Federation compiled survey results to show that thirty percent of the women in China experienced domestic violence within their homes.
The true extent of domestic violence is unclear due to the lack of related law and execution of the law. The Chinese government is in the process of "planning" to pass a "draft of anti-domestic violence law".
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