🌻美國生活
越接近八月底, 早晚的溫差越來越大了. 現在到了晚上, 要穿上長袖長褲, 才覺得保暖. 而空氣也跟夏季的感覺起來不同了. 不那麼潮濕, 而有著較爽脆的感覺(英文是用crisp air來形容).
秋天也是菊花的季節. 超市也開始賣起了菊花. 各種顏色的菊花, 大大小小, 排在一起挺漂亮(照片1-3).
🌻疫情受惠科技成長股Zoom(ZM), Crowdstrike(CRWD)昨天跟今天發表財報了. 還是脫離不了魔咒(就是跌).
ZM還沒看. 不過稍微看了CRWD一下. Loss from operations有增加; 有提高全年度的財測. 有空的話, 會在另外一篇寫一下CRWD.
🌻前一陣子一家專門販售燕麥奶(oat milk)的公司, Oatly(OTLY)上市了.
上週去買菜的時候看到, 有好多種oat milk上架. 這還不是在Walmart(覆蓋範圍較大的連鎖超市). 請見第四張照片.
挑股時, 要常問自己的一句話就是, 一家公司的競爭優勢在哪裡.
競爭優勢:
https://wiki.mbalib.com/zh-tw/%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF
🌻本周做的功課與閱讀
--目前的幾個危機與轉機
1. 西部港口又塞住了-->影響到供應鏈-->影響到零售業&年底購物季? 實體商品也會有cost pressure
2. Delta variant-->九月開學, 回去上班-->九月中疫情再惡化? 是否會影響到股市? 是否會影響到labor market? 九月後trading volume也會增加.
3. 失業救濟將於九月結束;九月學校開學, 家長回去上班-->會壓抑薪資的上漲-->舒緩通膨壓力
--關於大盤
The fact that the selloff petered out so quickly only increases the odds that the next one, whenever it arrives, could be even more violent. “The selloff has come and gone, and equities back at new highs will merely encourage more of the investor behavior that historically precedes larger fragility shocks,” Asis explains.
幾個可以注意的時間點:
9月初: ADP, 非農
9月初~9月中: 持續關注疫情相關新聞
09/21-22: Fed meeting
09/27前: 基建案相關新聞
--投資idea
全世界現在風不調雨不順. 一個氣候變遷的投資題材, 就是水資源了 (怎麼沒想到, 水也是原物料(commodity)的一種.)
Water Is Getting More Expensive. That’s an Opportunity.
At least 50% of the stocks listed in each of the four major U.S. stock indexes are in industries with medium-to-high water risk, according to an analysis by Ceres, says James.
RBC’s investment framework for water focuses on the names at the “higher end” of what it calls the “water valuation continuum.” Those include firms that have “more embedded water technology” such as Xylem (XYL), Evoqua Water Technologies ( AQUA ), Danaher (DHR), and Mueller Water Products (MWA), Dray says.
相關ETF有PIO, PHO.
其他細節:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/08/blog-post_31.html
🌻名人勵志話語
愛因斯坦:不是因為我有多聰明,而是我和問題相處比較久
It's not that I'm so smart; it's just that I stay with problems longer.
在某種程度上而言, 投資是極為需要耐心的一種活動. 常常有些答案, 不是找不到, 而是自己有沒有耐心與用心. 這跟聰不聰明其實沒有關係.
照片來源: http://swedenborgstudy.org/1039.html
同時也有54部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過2,030的網紅數位時代Official,也在其Youtube影片中提到,公司簡介 DataYoo悠由以資料分析與AI技術為核心,結合作物產地、在地生長數據及市場情報,預測生產端到採購端間整體供應鏈之完整風險控管解決方案,並提供農企業集團、金融業者包含銀行及產險業者,發展不同產業互利共生的資料應用服務解決方案。 The core competence of Data Y...
risk analysis 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳貼文
🌻本周做的閱讀與功課:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/08/blog-post_26.html
這周的功課有些落後. 之後可能會補東西進去. 不過重點就是這兩天的Jackson Hole 會議, 以及下周的非農.
🌻近期整理好的一些財報電話會議內容, 我會陸續放到部落格那邊. 請有興趣的讀者自行去找找. 如果還沒放上, 那就是還在進行中.
🌻Snowflake (SNOW) earnings analysis by Morgan Stanley
這家的熱度很高, 不過我沒有在follow. 下面是Morgan Stanley對於SNOW這次的財報, 所給予的評價. 供有興趣的讀者參考.
Snowflake Delivers a Solid Raise to Go Along With the Beat, as Visibility into Customer Expansion Improves. Another quarter of triple-digit product revenue growth (103% vs. 110% in 1Q22), came in 6% ahead of consensus, enabled by a set of underlying business metrics that remain best-in-class in enterprise software, including: 1) 169% net-revenue retention, which improved from 168% in Q1, 2) 60% YoY growth in total customers and 3) 107% YoY growth in customers spending in excess of $1 million in product revenue. More importantly, for the first time as a public company, management raised guidance in excess of the quarterly beat and ahead of consensus with the high end 3Q/FY22 product revenue guidance coming 5%/3% ahead of consensus. This reflects management's greater visibility into the consumption patterns of large customers – a fact underscored by CFO Mike Scarpelli reiterating expectations for 160%+ net revenue retention for the balance of the year. Furthermore, the company appears to be advancing its position beyond a cloud data warehouse, as evidenced by early traction in new areas including SnowPark (modern data pipelines), security analytics, machine learning and data exchange. The one area of controversy coming out of Q2 results was the sharp deceleration in RPO, which slowed to 122% YoY from 206% the prior quarter. However, we note that RPO growth was negatively impacted by the lapping of longer contract durations and a tough compare from the ~$100 million, 3-year deal with a large customer in the year ago period. Management noted that growth in new annualized contract value accelerated versus 2Q21. Overall, we are encouraged by Snowflake's meaningful beat and raise, and take our PT to $295. However, with shares trading 54x revenue (0.67x rev growth-adjusted), we look for a pull back to generate a better risk/reward profile.
🌻美國很有名的一位"farm-influencer", 鄉村部落客, 專門描述農村&田園的部落客: https://www.instagram.com/hcneeleman/
WSJ前幾天有篇文章, 是講現在的一個美國次文化(鄉村/農村文化farm culture). 加上疫情後, 很多人搬到鄉村或是郊區, 讓這樣的文化更盛行了起來. 相關個股是連鎖零售店Tractor Supply (TSCO)以及鞋店Boot Barn (BOOT).
https://www.wsj.com/articles/instagram-stars-make-farm-life-look-delightfulminus-the-manure-11629733123
Pictures: Tractor Supply內部照片
risk analysis 在 畢明 Facebook 的精選貼文
就算打咗疫苗,真係仍然要好小心
//There is abundant evidence that Covid vaccines in the UK continue to offer significant protection against hospitalisations and death. But this new analysis shows that although being fully vaccinated means the risk of getting infected is lower, once infected by Delta a person can carry similar virus levels as unvaccinated people//
朋友在英國,說現在英國因為Covid要入院的人又再上升,很多都是打了兩針的人。而很多英國人的防疫意識,已非常鬆懈,以為jabbed咗就無敵。
#DeltaisDelta
risk analysis 在 數位時代Official Youtube 的最佳貼文
公司簡介
DataYoo悠由以資料分析與AI技術為核心,結合作物產地、在地生長數據及市場情報,預測生產端到採購端間整體供應鏈之完整風險控管解決方案,並提供農企業集團、金融業者包含銀行及產險業者,發展不同產業互利共生的資料應用服務解決方案。
The core competence of Data Yoo is data analysis and AI technology. By integrating the farm of production, local growing data and market information into the analysis, we are equipped with sufficient knowledge that enables us to predict the comprehensive risk management solution for the whole supply chain, ranging from the production aspect to retailing aspect. Furthermore, we provide “Data Application Service Solution” that facilitates the development of the mutually beneficial symbiosis in different industries to agricultural enterprise groups and financial companies, including banks and property insurance companies.
公司網站
https://datayoo.com.tw/
risk analysis 在 帕克 Youtube 的精選貼文
#統神#舔嘴唇#嘴唇#toyz
補充一下美國責任屬(GAO)
寫的那份報告裡
有懇請國會,不要再用肢體語言來
推測一個人是否是嫌疑犯
因為真的造成很大的誤會以及社會浪費
即使造成誤判,
安全部門還是可以要求對方不能上飛機
所以用肢體語言推測焦慮,慌張等等
是無法判斷一個人是否真的是嫌疑犯的
0:00 開頭
8:15 影片贊助者
這部影片感謝
帕克的贊助會員:
呂小冷 的熱情贊助
延伸觀看
1.神到被禁止的體操動作 ! ?究竟是怎麼回事 ?
https://youtu.be/QQAlCMIIDPI
2.奧運選手其實很淫亂? 那些超乎想像的盛宴?
https://youtu.be/fTxDhDhBNgI
3.人類真的可以用刀擋下子彈嗎?
https://youtu.be/KoL4CqvxXAM
references:
1.往右上看代表說謊的駁斥
The Eyes Don’t Have It: Lie Detection
and Neuro-Linguistic Programming
2.美國GAO檢視178個資料並呼籲停止使用
Aviation Security: TSA Does Not Have Valid Evidence
Supporting Most of the Revised Behavioral Indicators
Used in Its Behavior Detection Activities
3.TSA成立SPOT計畫
The analysis of nonverbal communication:
The dangers of pseudoscience in security and justice contexts
4.肢體語言測謊準確度
Accuracy of Deception Judgments
5.7-35-58法則出處
INFERENCE OF ATTITUDES FROM NONVERBAL
COMMUNICATION IN TWO CHANNELS
6.肢體測謊不斷被瘋傳的網路追蹤研究
Communication is 93% Nonverbal: An Urban Legend Proliferates
7.肢體語言專家號稱測謊準確度高達90%,實際不然
Justice at risk! An evaluation of a pseudoscientific analysis
of a witness’ nonverbal behavior in the courtroom
risk analysis 在 Rayner Teo Youtube 的最佳貼文
Discover the secrets of Forex trading and how you can be a profitable Forex trader-even if you have no trading experience.
In this Forex trading course for beginners, you'll learn:
0:00 - Introduction
01:00 - What is Forex trading
08:15 - Currency pair explained
14:05 - What is a pip
19:00 - The truth about leverage
23:50 - What is pip value and how to calculate it
30:44 - How to manage your risk like a professional trader
40:18 - Types of Forex orders
51:05 - The spread explained
58:58 - Types of Forex traders
1:01:45 - Technical analysis and market structure
1:13:36 - Area of value and support and resistance
1:21:48 - Entry triggers and candlestick patterns
1:36:10 - Real trading examples
Ready?
Then go watch it right now.
And if you want to level up your trading, then get your copy of Price Action Trading Secrets here... https://priceactiontradingsecrets.com/
risk analysis 在 Risk Analysis and Risk Management - Mind Tools 的相關結果
Risk Analysis is a proven way of identifying and assessing factors that could negatively affect the success of a business or project. It allows you to examine ... ... <看更多>
risk analysis 在 Risk Analysis Definition - Investopedia 的相關結果
Risk analysis is the study of the underlying uncertainty of a given course of action and refers to the uncertainty of forecasted cash flow streams, the variance ... ... <看更多>
risk analysis 在 Risk Analysis - Wiley Online Library 的相關結果
Risk Analysis, published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the ... ... <看更多>