[MARKET IS GOING INTO A SUPERMAN MODE]
To all my critics. Balik kampung lah...
Let me stress once for all this is only the beginning of a great run for stocks which may last another half dozen years.
Here are my Top FIVE reasons why the MARKET IS UNLIKELY TO CRASH :
1. No recession in sight. Bear markets often occur around severe economic downturns.
The 1998 currency crisis. 2008 credit crisis. 2001 the dot-com meltdown. The oil shock of the 1978. The Vietnam War of the 1969. And of course, the most devastating of bank run in the Great Depression of 1929.
We dont see any economic threat now. In fact, we see two speed of solid recovery. The USA fast recovery and the Europe slow patchy recovery. I called this the barbecue global economic recovery
2. The Central Banks are still your best friend and 'Dollar printing' are still the best cure. The risk of the Federal Reserve crashing the stock market with huge interest rate hikes is virtually zero.
The Fed's key rate has been near zero since December 2008. So even if the Fed pushes it back towards 1% next year and Bank Negara raised to 4%, that is not cripplingly high. Further, the European Central Bank and Bank Of Japan are set to flood their system with lots and lots and lots of money next few weeks...
3. Fundamentals are solid. Okay, market is not cheap but is not crazy overvalued either. The Bursa KLCI and USA S&P 500 are currently trading at 16 times and 15 times 2015 earnings estimates. Roughly in my analyst view as fair value for the market.
4. Corrections have happened in this bull market. One of the biggest arguments the bears make about this market is in a long rising wedge and that there hasn't been a big pullback in a while.
They are wrong. Rising Wedge can be a bullish pattern.
In fact, we have two good correction over the last five years. July-Sep 2011 and May-August 2013. KLCI corrected by 18% and 9% respectively.
Remember the Flash Crash on fears about Greece leaving the Eurozone fears and then flash crash on Standard & Poor's stripping the USA of its triple-A credit rating. Everybody say it is going to crash and yes they are wrong.
5. Bulls normally last TEN year and Sentiment is amazingly strong. This bull is only five plus years old. Last week, we see Triple Barrel now, meaning Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit simultaneously all-time high.
In other words, the whole world is back in the Greed mode. Sure, we may see temporary pull back after an overbought market. Pull back is 'pull back' and therefore is not Crash.
All in all. I think we are seeing the stock market being a Superman now over the last five years and will continue to a Superman (or shall I say Iron Man) over the next five years.
My last advice to my all dearest Malaysian traders whether Swing Traders, Momentum Traders, Scalpers or Rempiters : go shopping and go shopping and go shopping as early as next week.
CMSB, Bursa, Tenaga, HLInd, Amprop, GHLSys, KSL, IWCity, Boilerm, Pintaras, Pasukhas, DNEX.......the list goes on.....
By the way, thank you to all participants that went through our course in Menara PGRM. All the best and sure it is truly worth the money and time !
Best Regards
Dr Nazri Khan, MSTA, CFTe
President, Malaysian Association Of Technical Analyst (MATA)
