綠光的 David Einhorn Q3 股東信出來示警說泡泡要爆了，以下是他的看法：
• an IPO mania;
IPO 狂潮
-我有同樣的擔憂
• extraordinary valuations and new metrics for valuation;
出現新的估值指標和非尋常的估值。
-這邊應該是市場共識，但估值高也是有 QE 和降息的背景支撐
• a huge market concentration in a single sector and a few stocks;
巨大的交易聚焦於單一族群和少數個股
-我想她是在說科技股
• a second tier of stocks that most people haven’t heard of at S&P 500-type market capitalizations;
沒人聽過的二線仔們擠身 S&P 500 等級的市值
-不確定他指誰，這部分每個人心裡都會有對應的答案
• the more fanciful and distant the narrative, it seems the better the stock performs;
新潮和距離感越明顯的個股表現都比較好
-在講本夢比的類股吧，我認同若沒有明確的產品，估值卻很高那就有問題，這邊看個人標準落在 1-10B
• outperformance of companies suspected of fraud based on the consensus belief that there is no enforcement risk, without which crime pays;
表現優異的公司具有詐欺的嫌疑，卻不用付出代價
-這是在說 NKLA?
• outsized reaction to economically irrelevant stock splits;
與基本面無關的股票分割卻有過大的反應
-這邊應該在講 AAPL 和 TSLA 拆股後劇烈震盪
• increased participation of retail investors, who appear focused on the bestperforming names;
散戶數量增加，且都聚焦在漲勢很好的個股
-這很多人都在聊
• incredible trading volumes in speculative instruments like weekly call options and worthless common stock; and a parabolic ascent toward a top.
投機的交易量增加，像是選擇權和一些不值錢的普通股拋物線往頂部衝
-ㄟ...軟銀 4ni？
Einhorn 也分享了一段很爆笑的故事：We recently received a job
application with the email subject, “I am young, but good at investments” from a 13-year old who purports to have quadrupled his money since February.
我們最近收到了一封求職信，主旨為：我年輕但很會投資。這封信來自一位 13 歲小孩自稱從 2 月以來資產已經翻了 4 倍。
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現在好像每天都有人會出來喊空，但股災後那批所謂的「大媽、散戶」至今隨便賣，要輾過對沖基金平均績效是滿容易的，就看要不要見好就收囉。
註：David Einhorn 是有名的特斯拉空頭，馬斯克曾經氣到寄一箱短褲過去挑釁。
